27 value bets live this gameweek

Find the gaps the
bookies miss.

Stacca compares model probabilities against market odds, then layers on next-opposition splits and player-prop trends — so you see why a price is wrong, not just that it is.

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Fixtures modelled: 11
Avg. edge: +2.8%
Trends tracked: 32

Free trend of the week

Player prop trend Triggered next match

Leeds United

James Justin · 1+ shots on target

vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)

100%

3/3 games

baseline 38% · +63 pts

James Justin: 1+ shots on target in 3/3 games vs sides above them (100%) vs 38% overall in PL 2026/27. Triggered because next opponent Bournemouth are the market favourite.

Next: Bournemouth v Leeds United

Players and teams behave differently against stronger and weaker sides. The market prices the season average — that gap is the bet.

Coventry City v SunderlandBoth Teams to ScorePROLiverpool v ArsenalTotal Goals+6.1%Bournemouth v Leeds UnitedKeeper SavesPROHull City v Ipswich TownBoth Teams to ScorePROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionKeeper SavesPROTottenham Hotspur v Crystal PalaceTeam GoalsPROHull City v Ipswich TownTeam GoalsPROAston Villa v FulhamTeam GoalsPROAston Villa v FulhamKeeper SavesPROHull City v Ipswich TownTotal Goals+-1.9%Hull City v Ipswich TownKeeper SavesPROChelsea v Manchester UnitedKeeper SavesPROBournemouth v Leeds UnitedPlayer Shots on targetPROLiverpool v ArsenalPlayer Fouls wonPRONewcastle United v EvertonPlayer Fouls wonPROEverton v Coventry CityBooking PointsPROAston Villa v FulhamPlayer Fouls wonPROAston Villa v FulhamPlayer Shots on targetPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestBooking PointsPROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionPlayer Shots on targetPROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionPlayer Fouls committedPROLiverpool v ArsenalPlayer Fouls committedPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestPlayer Fouls committedPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestPlayer Fouls committedPRONewcastle United v EvertonPlayer Shots on targetPROBournemouth v Leeds UnitedPlayer Shots on targetPROHull City v Ipswich TownPlayer Fouls wonPROCoventry City v SunderlandBoth Teams to ScorePROLiverpool v ArsenalTotal Goals+6.1%Bournemouth v Leeds UnitedKeeper SavesPROHull City v Ipswich TownBoth Teams to ScorePROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionKeeper SavesPROTottenham Hotspur v Crystal PalaceTeam GoalsPROHull City v Ipswich TownTeam GoalsPROAston Villa v FulhamTeam GoalsPROAston Villa v FulhamKeeper SavesPROHull City v Ipswich TownTotal Goals+-1.9%Hull City v Ipswich TownKeeper SavesPROChelsea v Manchester UnitedKeeper SavesPROBournemouth v Leeds UnitedPlayer Shots on targetPROLiverpool v ArsenalPlayer Fouls wonPRONewcastle United v EvertonPlayer Fouls wonPROEverton v Coventry CityBooking PointsPROAston Villa v FulhamPlayer Fouls wonPROAston Villa v FulhamPlayer Shots on targetPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestBooking PointsPROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionPlayer Shots on targetPROManchester City v Brighton and Hove AlbionPlayer Fouls committedPROLiverpool v ArsenalPlayer Fouls committedPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestPlayer Fouls committedPROBrentford v Nottingham ForestPlayer Fouls committedPRONewcastle United v EvertonPlayer Shots on targetPROBournemouth v Leeds UnitedPlayer Shots on targetPROHull City v Ipswich TownPlayer Fouls wonPRO

The method

Three layers of edge, one tip.

Every tip carries a model probability, the bookmaker's implied probability, the edge between them and a confidence score built from sample size.

Market gaps

Our Poisson xG model prices every match. When the bookmaker's implied probability sits below ours, that's a value bet — we show the exact edge.

Next-opposition context

Teams and players behave differently against stronger and weaker opponents. We rate every side on league position and recent form (50/50) plus home advantage, then split every stat by the situation the next fixture triggers.

Situational trends

Player props like fouls, shots on target and fouls won — tracked by opponent strength, venue and referee — surfaced where the market still prices the season average.

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Fixtures, form tables and 2 daily tips free. Every value bet, trend and AI breakdown on Pro.

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