Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace

14th PL 2026/27 v 17th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC

Market: Tottenham Hotspur favourites at 62% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)

xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro

Market odds vs model

Home

1.55

mkt 65%

model 47%

Draw

4.50

mkt 22%

model 47%

Away

6.00

mkt 17%

model 47%

Over 2.5

1.56

mkt 64%

model 47%

Under 2.5

2.38

mkt 42%

model 47%

BTTS

1.67

mkt 60%

model 47%

Match intelligence

How TOT and CRY match up

Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off

Result prediction

What decides this match

Home win (48%) · most likely score 2-1

TOT 48%Draw 26%CRY 26%

xG 1.62 – 1.08 · likely scores1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 7%

Goal lines · model vs best price

Over 1.5

76%

fair —

Over 2.5

52%

fair —

Over 3.5

27%

fair —

Both teams score

55%

fair —

← favours TOTfavours CRY →

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League position

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Form (last 5)

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Home v away record

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Attack v defence

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Shot dominance

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Rest

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Lineup strength

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Market

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Pro result model

Opponent-adjusted projections

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Shots on target

total 9.0 · league 8.6

TOT 5.13.9 CRY

Shots

total 23.6 · league 22.0

TOT 13.210.4 CRY

Corners

total 9.5 · league 9.4

TOT 5.44.1 CRY

Fouls committed

total 22.4 · league 23.0

TOT 10.811.6 CRY

Each side's rate (season blended with last 5) × what the opponent allows ÷ league average, adjusted for venue. Corners blend that matchup rate 50/50 with each side's corners-per-shot habit × its projected shots. Fouls won by one side = fouls committed by the other.

Pro projections

Playing style · 80 league matches tracked

Style profiles

Tottenham Hotspur

8 games · 1.12 PPG (last 5 1.60)

40% of shots from outside the box

Possession-basedDribble-heavyFoul-proneWins lots of foulsLong-range shootersWins lots of corners

Possession %

60.9#3

Shots on target

3.9#14

On target conceded

3.8#16

Shots

9.5#10

Shots outside box

5.8#5

Long shots conceded

4.0#14

Corners won

6.5#1

Corners conceded

4.4#11

Key passes

9.2#13

Tackles + interceptions

25.8#9

Fouls committed

13.9#2

Fouls won

13.5#4

Cards

1.6#18

Crystal Palace

8 games · 0.88 PPG (last 5 0.80)

34% of shots from outside the box

Direct, low possessionAggressive pressingClean, low-foulLeaky defence

Possession %

44.6#17

Shots on target

3.8#15

On target conceded

5.6#1

Shots

8.8#14

Shots outside box

3.8#14

Long shots conceded

5.1#7

Corners won

3.6#18

Corners conceded

5.5#3

Key passes

8.2#17

Tackles + interceptions

30.6#1

Fouls committed

10.2#17

Fouls won

9.8#15

Cards

1.6#17

Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).

Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions

Lineups & player projections

Player	Pos	Fouls committed
Antonín Kinský	G	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Jan Paul van Hecke	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Micky van de Ven	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Archie Gray	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Andy Robertson	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Sandro Tonali	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Mohammed Kudus	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Sávio	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Mateus Fernandes	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Omar Marmoush	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Dominic Solanke	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%

Pro player matchups

Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.

AI scout

Angles the numbers point to

Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...

Pro AI match preview

Referee

Not yet appointed

Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.

Booking points projection

Cards & bookings

yellow 10 · red 25

Pro bookings model

Value tips for this fixture

Goals market · Team Goals

Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace

Sat 31 Oct, 17:30

Pro value bet

home · Premier League 2026/27