Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Hull City v Ipswich Town

10th PL 2026/27 v 12th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC

Market: Hull City favourites at 36% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)

xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro

Market odds vs model

Home

2.63

mkt 38%

model 47%

Draw

3.50

mkt 29%

model 47%

Away

2.70

mkt 37%

model 47%

Over 2.5

1.88

mkt 53%

model 47%

Under 2.5

1.95

mkt 51%

model 47%

BTTS

1.67

mkt 60%

model 47%

Match intelligence

How HUL and IPS match up

Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off

Result prediction

What decides this match

Home win (48%) · most likely score 2-1

HUL 48%Draw 26%IPS 26%

xG 1.62 – 1.08 · likely scores1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 7%

Goal lines · model vs best price

Over 1.5

76%

fair —

Over 2.5

52%

fair —

Over 3.5

27%

fair —

Both teams score

55%

fair —

← favours HULfavours IPS →

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League position

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Form (last 5)

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Home v away record

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Attack v defence

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Shot dominance

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Rest

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Lineup strength

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Market

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Pro result model

Opponent-adjusted projections

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Shots on target

total 9.0 · league 8.6

HUL 5.13.9 IPS

Shots

total 23.6 · league 22.0

HUL 13.210.4 IPS

Corners

total 9.5 · league 9.4

HUL 5.44.1 IPS

Fouls committed

total 22.4 · league 23.0

HUL 10.811.6 IPS

Each side's rate (season blended with last 5) × what the opponent allows ÷ league average, adjusted for venue. Corners blend that matchup rate 50/50 with each side's corners-per-shot habit × its projected shots. Fouls won by one side = fouls committed by the other.

Pro projections

Playing style · 80 league matches tracked

Style profiles

Hull City

8 games · 1.25 PPG (last 5 0.60)

44% of shots from outside the box

Direct, low possessionFew shotsLong-range shootersCard-heavy

Possession %

32.6#20

Shots on target

3.2#18

On target conceded

5.0#5

Shots

8.2#17

Shots outside box

4.8#7

Long shots conceded

4.2#13

Corners won

3.9#16

Corners conceded

6.5#1

Key passes

7.5#18

Tackles + interceptions

26.1#6

Fouls committed

10.8#14

Fouls won

7.6#20

Cards

2.6#4

Ipswich Town

8 games · 1.25 PPG (last 5 1.40)

38% of shots from outside the box

Direct, low possessionLeaky defence

Possession %

43.9#18

Shots on target

4.2#11

On target conceded

5.5#3

Shots

9.0#13

Shots outside box

4.0#13

Long shots conceded

5.6#5

Corners won

2.9#20

Corners conceded

4.8#9

Key passes

8.5#16

Tackles + interceptions

25.8#7

Fouls committed

11.4#11

Fouls won

9.4#17

Cards

2.0#13

Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).

Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions

Lineups & player projections

Player	Pos	Fouls committed
Konstantinos Tzolakis	G	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Lewie Coyle	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Semi Ajayi	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
John Egan	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Ryan Giles	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Lucas Herrington	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Regan Slater	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Mohamed Belloumi	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Matt Crooks	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Sorba Thomas	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Oliver McBurnie	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%

Pro player matchups

Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.

AI scout

Angles the numbers point to

Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...

Pro AI match preview

Referee

Not yet appointed

Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.

Booking points projection

Cards & bookings

yellow 10 · red 25

Pro bookings model

Value tips for this fixture

Goals market · Both Teams to Score

Hull City v Ipswich Town

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Goals market · Team Goals

Hull City v Ipswich Town

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Goals market · Total Goals

Hull City v Ipswich Town

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Free tip

Over 2.5 goals

1.88best @ Casumo

Model

52.2%

Market

53.2%

Model 52% (market 51% + form & stats) vs best price 1.88 at Casumo (implied 53%) → -1.9% — priced about right, backed by form
Over 2.5 landed in 3/5 recent Hull City games and 3/5 Ipswich Town games
Hull City scored in 4/5 of their last 5, Ipswich Town in 4/5
Hull City conceded in 5/5, Ipswich Town in 5/5
Price range 1.80–1.88 across 4 bookmakers

form pick · -1.9%

Player prop · Keeper Saves

Hull City v Ipswich Town

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Fouls won

Hull City v Ipswich Town

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Trends triggered by this matchup

Player prop trend

Hull City

Hull City · 2+ fouls won

vs sides below them (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

Player prop trend

Hull City

Hull City · 2+ fouls won

vs sides below them (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

Player prop trend

Hull City

Hull City · 2+ fouls committed

vs sides below them (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

Team trend Triggered next match

Hull City

Hull City · Both teams score

vs sides below them (PL 2026/27)

25%

1/4 games

baseline 50% · -25 pts

Hull City games — both teams score: 1/4 vs sides below them (25%) vs 50% across PL 2026/27. Triggered because next opponent Ipswich Town are not the market favourite.

Next: Hull City v Ipswich Town

Team trend

Hull City

Hull City · Over 2.5 goals

vs sides below them (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

home · Premier League 2026/27

Hull City

DLDLD

vs Brentford (6)1-1 D

@ Fulham (15)0-1 L

vs Everton (11)2-2 D

@ Newcastle (8)1-2 L

@ Chelsea (5)2-2 D

vs Aston Villa (9)0-0 D

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.25	1.12	1.00	38%	50%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

away · Premier League 2026/27

Ipswich Town

DLWLW

vs Nottingham Forest (18)1-1 D

@ Manchester City (1)2-3 L

vs Fulham (15)2-1 W

@ Everton (11)0-1 L

@ Crystal Palace (17)3-2 W

vs Liverpool (4)0-2 L

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.25	1.50	2.00	62%	75%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

Hull City v Ipswich Town

How HUL and IPS match up

What decides this match

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Style profiles

Lineups & player projections

Angles the numbers point to

Not yet appointed

Cards & bookings

Value tips for this fixture

Trends triggered by this matchup

Hull City · 2+ fouls won

Hull City · 2+ fouls won

Hull City · 2+ fouls committed

Hull City · Both teams score

Hull City · Over 2.5 goals

Hull City

Ipswich Town

Head to head