Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Aston Villa v Fulham

9th PL 2026/27 v 15th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC

Market: Aston Villa favourites at 48% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)

xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro

Market odds vs model

Home

2.00

mkt 50%

model 47%

Draw

3.80

mkt 26%

model 47%

Away

3.70

mkt 27%

model 47%

Over 2.5

1.68

mkt 60%

model 47%

Under 2.5

2.15

mkt 47%

model 47%

Match intelligence

How AVL and FUL match up

Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off

Result prediction

What decides this match

Home win (48%) · most likely score 2-1

AVL 48%Draw 26%FUL 26%

xG 1.62 – 1.08 · likely scores1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 7%

Goal lines · model vs best price

Over 1.5

76%

fair —

Over 2.5

52%

fair —

Over 3.5

27%

fair —

Both teams score

55%

fair —

← favours AVLfavours FUL →

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League position

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Form (last 5)

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Home v away record

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Attack v defence

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Shot dominance

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Rest

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Lineup strength

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Market

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Pro result model

Opponent-adjusted projections

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Shots on target

total 9.0 · league 8.6

AVL 5.13.9 FUL

Shots

total 23.6 · league 22.0

AVL 13.210.4 FUL

Corners

total 9.5 · league 9.4

AVL 5.44.1 FUL

Fouls committed

total 22.4 · league 23.0

AVL 10.811.6 FUL

Each side's rate (season blended with last 5) × what the opponent allows ÷ league average, adjusted for venue. Corners blend that matchup rate 50/50 with each side's corners-per-shot habit × its projected shots. Fouls won by one side = fouls committed by the other.

Pro projections

Playing style · 80 league matches tracked

Style profiles

Aston Villa

8 games · 1.38 PPG (last 5 2.00)

32% of shots from outside the box

Balanced profile

Possession %

46.1#16

Shots on target

3.0#20

On target conceded

4.8#6

Shots

8.8#15

Shots outside box

3.6#18

Long shots conceded

5.1#8

Corners won

3.2#19

Corners conceded

4.6#10

Key passes

8.9#14

Tackles + interceptions

26.9#5

Fouls committed

12.0#8

Fouls won

13.2#5

Cards

2.4#6

Fulham

8 games · 1.00 PPG (last 5 1.60)

26% of shots from outside the box

Wins lots of corners

Possession %

58.0#5

Shots on target

4.5#8

On target conceded

3.9#14

Shots

9.6#8

Shots outside box

3.8#17

Long shots conceded

5.1#9

Corners won

6.1#2

Corners conceded

4.2#14

Key passes

11.5#7

Tackles + interceptions

22.1#15

Fouls committed

10.5#15

Fouls won

8.2#19

Cards

2.1#11

Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).

Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions

Lineups & player projections

Player	Pos	Fouls committed
Zion Suzuki	G	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Victor Lindelöf	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Matty Cash	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
T. Mings	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Pau Torres	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Boubacar Kamara	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
John McGinn	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
João Gomes	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Johan Manzambi	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Emiliano Buendía	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Nicolas Jackson	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%

Pro player matchups

Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.

AI scout

Angles the numbers point to

Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...

Pro AI match preview

Referee

Not yet appointed

Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.

Booking points projection

Cards & bookings

yellow 10 · red 25

Pro bookings model

Value tips for this fixture

Goals market · Team Goals

Aston Villa v Fulham

Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Keeper Saves

Aston Villa v Fulham

Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Fouls won

Aston Villa v Fulham

Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Shots on target

Aston Villa v Fulham

Sat 31 Oct, 20:00

vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

home · Premier League 2026/27

Aston Villa

WWDWL

vs Manchester City (1)2-1 W

@ Newcastle (8)1-0 W

vs Brentford (6)2-2 D

@ Tottenham (14)3-2 W

vs Nottingham Forest (18)1-2 L

@ Hull City (10)0-0 D

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.38	1.12	1.50	62%	50%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

away · Premier League 2026/27

Fulham

WWLDD

@ Coventry (19)1-0 W

vs Hull City (10)1-0 W

@ Ipswich (12)1-2 L

vs Manchester United (16)1-1 D

@ Liverpool (4)0-0 D

vs Crystal Palace (17)2-3 L

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.00	1.00	1.25	38%	50%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

Aston Villa v Fulham

How AVL and FUL match up

What decides this match

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Style profiles

Lineups & player projections

Angles the numbers point to

Not yet appointed

Cards & bookings

Value tips for this fixture

Trends triggered by this matchup

Fulham · 2+ fouls won

Fulham · 1+ shots on target

Fulham · 2+ fouls committed

Fulham · 1+ cards

Fulham · Over 2.5 goals

Aston Villa

Fulham

Head to head