Pro value bet
All fixtures Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off
yellow 10 · red 25
Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 12:30
Chelsea v Manchester United
5th PL 2026/27 v 16th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC
Market: Chelsea favourites at 52% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)
xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro
Market odds vs model
Home
1.83
mkt 55%
model 47%
Draw
4.00
mkt 25%
model 47%
Away
4.20
mkt 24%
model 47%
Over 2.5
1.55
mkt 65%
model 47%
Under 2.5
2.43
mkt 41%
model 47%
BTTS
1.53
mkt 65%
model 47%
Match intelligence
How CHE and MUN match up
Result prediction
What decides this match
Pro result model
Opponent-adjusted projections
Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup
Pro projections
Playing style · 80 league matches tracked
Style profiles
Chelsea
8 games · 1.62 PPG (last 5 1.40)
36% of shots from outside the box
Clean, low-foulLeaky defence
Possession %
46.4#14
Shots on target
5.4#3
On target conceded
5.6#2
Shots
9.4#12
Shots outside box
4.8#8
Long shots conceded
3.9#17
Corners won
5.6#6
Corners conceded
5.5#5
Key passes
10.2#11
Tackles + interceptions
25.1#12
Fouls committed
9.9#19
Fouls won
11.5#10
Cards
2.2#8
Manchester United
8 games · 0.88 PPG (last 5 0.60)
45% of shots from outside the box
High shot volumeChance creatorsDribble-heavyAggressive pressingClean, low-foulLong-range shooters
Possession %
56.5#6
Shots on target
5.0#4
On target conceded
4.4#9
Shots
13.0#2
Shots outside box
8.8#1
Long shots conceded
2.8#19
Corners won
6.0#3
Corners conceded
3.6#20
Key passes
14.5#1
Tackles + interceptions
27.5#4
Fouls committed
10.0#18
Fouls won
11.5#8
Cards
2.0#12
Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).
Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions
Lineups & player projections
| Player | Pos | Fouls committed | Fouls won | Shots | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Martínez | G | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Levi Colwill | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Maxence Lacroix | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Josh Acheampong | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Jorrel Hato | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Cole Palmer | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Pedro Neto | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Jordan Henderson | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Moisés Caicedo | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Morgan Rogers | F | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| João Pedro | F | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
Pro player matchups
Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.
AI scout
Angles the numbers point to
Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...
Pro AI match preview
Referee
Not yet appointed
Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.
Booking points projection
Cards & bookings
Pro bookings model
Value tips for this fixture
Trends triggered by this matchup
Team trend
Chelsea
Chelsea · Over 2.5 goals
vs non-top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
home · Premier League 2026/27
Chelsea
LWWLD
vs Tottenham (14)0-2 L
@ Everton (11)2-0 W
vs Bournemouth (13)5-1 W
@ Brentford (6)0-3 L
vs Hull City (10)2-2 D
@ Arsenal (2)1-2 L
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 1.62 | 2.12 | 1.88 | 75% | 62% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits
away · Premier League 2026/27
Manchester United
LDDDL
vs Bournemouth (13)0-3 L
@ Leeds (7)1-1 D
vs Tottenham (14)1-1 D
@ Fulham (15)1-1 D
vs Manchester City (1)0-1 L
@ Everton (11)2-2 D
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 0.88 | 1.25 | 1.62 | 38% | 62% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits