Matchweek 9 · Sun 1 Nov, 16:30

Liverpool v Arsenal

4th PL 2026/27 v 2nd PL 2026/27 Referee TBC

Market: Arsenal favourites at 41% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)

xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro

Market odds vs model

Home

3.00

mkt 33%

model 47%

Draw

3.60

mkt 28%

model 47%

Away

2.35

mkt 43%

model 47%

Over 2.5

1.88

mkt 53%

model 47%

Under 2.5

1.95

mkt 51%

model 47%

Match intelligence

How LIV and ARS match up

Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off

Result prediction

What decides this match

Home win (48%) · most likely score 2-1

LIV 48%Draw 26%ARS 26%

xG 1.62 – 1.08 · likely scores1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 7%

Goal lines · model vs best price

Over 1.5

76%

fair —

Over 2.5

52%

fair —

Over 3.5

27%

fair —

Both teams score

55%

fair —

← favours LIVfavours ARS →

—

League position

—

Form (last 5)

—

Home v away record

—

Attack v defence

—

Shot dominance

—

Rest

—

Lineup strength

—

Market

—

Pro result model

Opponent-adjusted projections

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Shots on target

total 9.0 · league 8.6

LIV 5.13.9 ARS

Shots

total 23.6 · league 22.0

LIV 13.210.4 ARS

Corners

total 9.5 · league 9.4

LIV 5.44.1 ARS

Fouls committed

total 22.4 · league 23.0

LIV 10.811.6 ARS

Each side's rate (season blended with last 5) × what the opponent allows ÷ league average, adjusted for venue. Corners blend that matchup rate 50/50 with each side's corners-per-shot habit × its projected shots. Fouls won by one side = fouls committed by the other.

Pro projections

Playing style · 80 league matches tracked

Style profiles

Liverpool

8 games · 1.88 PPG (last 5 2.00)

42% of shots from outside the box

Dribble-heavyFoul-proneTight defenceLong-range shooters

Possession %

53.2#7

Shots on target

4.9#6

On target conceded

3.1#19

Shots

9.9#7

Shots outside box

6.5#3

Long shots conceded

4.9#11

Corners won

4.8#10

Corners conceded

4.1#17

Key passes

11.5#6

Tackles + interceptions

25.1#11

Fouls committed

13.8#4

Fouls won

9.8#16

Cards

2.5#5

Arsenal

8 games · 2.62 PPG (last 5 2.40)

32% of shots from outside the box

Possession-basedChance creatorsWins lots of foulsTight defence

Possession %

60.9#2

Shots on target

4.4#9

On target conceded

3.0#20

Shots

8.6#16

Shots outside box

4.2#11

Long shots conceded

4.9#10

Corners won

5.6#5

Corners conceded

3.9#19

Key passes

11.8#4

Tackles + interceptions

18.6#20

Fouls committed

10.2#16

Fouls won

15.2#1

Cards

1.2#19

Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).

Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions

Lineups & player projections

Player	Pos	Fouls committed
Alisson	G	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Jérémy Jacquet	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Virgil van Dijk	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Ronald Araújo	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Miloš Kerkez	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Florian Wirtz	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Bradley Barcola	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Alexis Mac Allister	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Víctor Muñoz	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Dominik Szoboszlai	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Alexander Isak	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%

Pro player matchups

Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.

AI scout

Angles the numbers point to

Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...

Pro AI match preview

Referee

Not yet appointed

Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.

Booking points projection

Cards & bookings

yellow 10 · red 25

Pro bookings model

Value tips for this fixture

Goals market · Total Goals

Liverpool v Arsenal

Sun 1 Nov, 16:30

Free tip

Under 2.5 goals

1.95best @ William Hill

Model

54.4%

Market

51.3%

Model 54% (market 49% + form & stats) vs best price 1.95 at William Hill (implied 51%) → +6.1%
Over 2.5 landed in 2/5 recent Liverpool games and 2/5 Arsenal games
Liverpool scored in 3/5 of their last 5, Arsenal in 4/5
Liverpool conceded in 2/5, Arsenal in 2/5
Price range 1.89–1.95 across 4 bookmakers

+6.1% edge

Player prop · Player Fouls won

Liverpool v Arsenal

Sun 1 Nov, 16:30

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Fouls committed

Liverpool v Arsenal

Sun 1 Nov, 16:30

vs non-top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

home · Premier League 2026/27

Liverpool

WWLWD

vs Brighton (3)2-0 W

@ Brentford (6)2-1 W

vs Manchester City (1)0-3 L

@ Bournemouth (13)1-0 W

vs Fulham (15)0-0 D

@ Ipswich (12)2-0 W

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.88	1.38	1.00	50%	38%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

away · Premier League 2026/27

Arsenal

WWWLW

vs Everton (11)2-0 W

@ Nottingham Forest (18)1-0 W

vs Leeds (7)2-1 W

@ Brighton (3)0-3 L

@ Sunderland (20)2-0 W

vs Chelsea (5)2-1 W

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	2.62	1.62	0.62	50%	25%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

Liverpool v Arsenal

How LIV and ARS match up

What decides this match

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Style profiles

Lineups & player projections

Angles the numbers point to

Not yet appointed

Cards & bookings

Value tips for this fixture

Trends triggered by this matchup

Liverpool · 2+ fouls won

Liverpool · 2+ fouls committed

Liverpool · 2+ fouls committed

Liverpool · 2+ shots

Liverpool · 1+ shots on target

Arsenal · Over 2.5 goals

Liverpool

Arsenal

Head to head