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yellow 10 · red 25
Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
Manchester City v Brighton and Hove Albion
1st PL 2026/27 v 3rd PL 2026/27 Referee TBC
Market: Manchester City favourites at 57% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)
xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro
Market odds vs model
Home
1.70
mkt 59%
model 47%
Draw
4.50
mkt 22%
model 47%
Away
4.75
mkt 21%
model 47%
Over 2.5
1.44
mkt 69%
model 47%
Under 2.5
2.62
mkt 38%
model 47%
BTTS
1.50
mkt 67%
model 47%
Match intelligence
How MCI and BHA match up
Result prediction
What decides this match
Pro result model
Opponent-adjusted projections
Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup
Pro projections
Playing style · 80 league matches tracked
Style profiles
Manchester City
8 games · 2.62 PPG (last 5 2.40)
26% of shots from outside the box
Possession-basedDribble-heavyWins lots of foulsWins lots of corners
Possession %
64.4#1
Shots on target
5.5#1
On target conceded
3.9#12
Shots
10.5#5
Shots outside box
3.8#16
Long shots conceded
3.9#16
Corners won
5.8#4
Corners conceded
4.1#16
Key passes
11.8#5
Tackles + interceptions
19.8#19
Fouls committed
11.5#10
Fouls won
15.1#2
Cards
1.8#16
Brighton and Hove Albion
8 games · 2.00 PPG (last 5 2.40)
39% of shots from outside the box
Possession-basedHigh shot volumeChance creatorsTight defence
Possession %
60.2#4
Shots on target
5.4#2
On target conceded
3.4#17
Shots
14.4#1
Shots outside box
6.9#2
Long shots conceded
2.6#20
Corners won
5.2#7
Corners conceded
4.9#8
Key passes
11.9#3
Tackles + interceptions
22.0#16
Fouls committed
12.4#7
Fouls won
9.9#14
Cards
2.2#7
Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).
Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions
Lineups & player projections
| Player | Pos | Fouls committed | Fouls won | Shots | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluigi Donnarumma | G | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Rúben Dias | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Marc Guéhi | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Matheus Nunes | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Iliman Ndiaye | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Elliot Anderson | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Rayan Cherki | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Enzo Fernández | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Erling Haaland | F | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Antoine Semenyo | F | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
Pro player matchups
Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.
AI scout
Angles the numbers point to
Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...
Pro AI match preview
Referee
Not yet appointed
Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.
Booking points projection
Cards & bookings
Pro bookings model
Value tips for this fixture
Pro value bet
Pro value bet
Trends triggered by this matchup
Player prop trend
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion · 1+ cards
vs top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
Player prop trend
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion · 1+ shots on target
vs top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
Player prop trend
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton and Hove Albion · 2+ fouls committed
vs top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
home · Premier League 2026/27
Manchester City
LWWWW
@ Aston Villa (9)1-2 L
vs Ipswich (12)3-2 W
@ Liverpool (4)3-0 W
vs Sunderland (20)5-3 W
@ Manchester United (16)1-0 W
vs Coventry (19)1-0 W
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 2.62 | 2.50 | 1.12 | 75% | 62% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits
away · Premier League 2026/27
Brighton and Hove Albion
LWWWW
@ Liverpool (4)0-2 L
vs Crystal Palace (17)5-0 W
@ Sunderland (20)2-0 W
vs Arsenal (2)3-0 W
@ Coventry (19)5-0 W
vs Leeds (7)1-1 D
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 2.00 | 2.88 | 0.88 | 62% | 25% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits