Pro value bet
All fixtures Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off
yellow 10 · red 25
Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 15:00
Bournemouth v Leeds United
13th PL 2026/27 v 7th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC
Market: Bournemouth favourites at 45% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)
xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro
Market odds vs model
Home
2.15
mkt 47%
model 47%
Draw
3.60
mkt 28%
model 47%
Away
3.50
mkt 29%
model 47%
Over 2.5
1.85
mkt 54%
model 47%
Under 2.5
1.93
mkt 52%
model 47%
BTTS
1.73
mkt 58%
model 47%
Match intelligence
How BOU and LEE match up
Result prediction
What decides this match
Pro result model
Opponent-adjusted projections
Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup
Pro projections
Playing style · 80 league matches tracked
Style profiles
Bournemouth
8 games · 1.12 PPG (last 5 1.40)
34% of shots from outside the box
High shot volumeAggressive pressingCard-heavy
Possession %
48.9#9
Shots on target
5.0#5
On target conceded
3.9#13
Shots
10.9#4
Shots outside box
4.9#6
Long shots conceded
4.0#15
Corners won
4.6#11
Corners conceded
4.0#18
Key passes
10.8#9
Tackles + interceptions
28.1#2
Fouls committed
13.5#5
Fouls won
11.8#7
Cards
2.8#2
Leeds United
8 games · 1.38 PPG (last 5 1.20)
32% of shots from outside the box
Few shots
Possession %
47.4#11
Shots on target
4.0#13
On target conceded
4.2#11
Shots
8.1#20
Shots outside box
3.8#15
Long shots conceded
6.2#3
Corners won
4.1#14
Corners conceded
4.1#15
Key passes
7.4#20
Tackles + interceptions
25.8#8
Fouls committed
12.9#6
Fouls won
11.5#9
Cards
1.9#15
Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).
Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions
Lineups & player projections
| Player | Pos | Fouls committed | Fouls won | Shots | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Đorđe Petrović | G | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Adam Smith | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| James Hill | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| António Silva | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Adrien Truffert | D | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Rayan | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Marcus Tavernier | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Tyler Adams | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Ryan Christie | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Justin Kluivert | M | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
| Evanilson | F | 1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41% | |||
Pro player matchups
Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.
AI scout
Angles the numbers point to
Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...
Pro AI match preview
Referee
Not yet appointed
Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.
Booking points projection
Cards & bookings
Pro bookings model
Value tips for this fixture
Pro value bet
Pro value bet
Trends triggered by this matchup
Player prop trend Triggered next match
Leeds United
James Justin · 1+ shots on target
vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)
100%
3/3 games
baseline 38% · +63 pts
James Justin: 1+ shots on target in 3/3 games vs sides above them (100%) vs 38% overall in PL 2026/27. Triggered because next opponent Bournemouth are the market favourite.
Next: Bournemouth v Leeds United
Player prop trend
Leeds United
Leeds United · 2+ fouls committed
vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
Player prop trend
Leeds United
Leeds United · 2+ shots
vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
Player prop trend
Leeds United
Leeds United · 2+ fouls won
vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
Player prop trend
Leeds United
Leeds United · 2+ fouls committed
vs sides above them (PL 2026/27)
Pro trend
home · Premier League 2026/27
Bournemouth
WWLLD
@ Manchester United (16)3-0 W
vs Sunderland (20)2-0 W
@ Chelsea (5)1-5 L
vs Liverpool (4)0-1 L
vs Brentford (6)2-2 D
@ Newcastle (8)2-2 D
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 62% | 62% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits
away · Premier League 2026/27
Leeds United
DDLDW
@ Sunderland (20)0-0 D
vs Manchester United (16)1-1 D
@ Arsenal (2)1-2 L
vs Crystal Palace (17)0-0 D
vs Newcastle (8)4-1 W
@ Brighton (3)1-1 D
Situational splits
| Split | P | PPG | GF | GA | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 2026/27 | 8 | 1.38 | 1.12 | 0.75 | 25% | 62% |
| vs sides above | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| vs sides below | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Home | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
| Away | 8 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Opposition splits