Matchweek 9 · Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

6th PL 2026/27 v 18th PL 2026/27 Referee TBC

Market: Brentford favourites at 47% (margin-free consensus of 21 UK books & exchanges)

xG model, referee and away-side context on Pro

Market odds vs model

Home

2.05

mkt 49%

model 47%

Draw

3.75

mkt 27%

model 47%

Away

3.50

mkt 29%

model 47%

Over 2.5

1.70

mkt 59%

model 47%

Under 2.5

2.14

mkt 47%

model 47%

BTTS

1.62

mkt 62%

model 47%

Match intelligence

How BRE and NFO match up

Predicted lineups — confirmed XIs load ~1 hour before kick-off

Result prediction

What decides this match

Home win (48%) · most likely score 2-1

BRE 48%Draw 26%NFO 26%

xG 1.62 – 1.08 · likely scores1-1 11%2-1 10%1-0 9%2-0 7%

Goal lines · model vs best price

Over 1.5

76%

fair —

Over 2.5

52%

fair —

Over 3.5

27%

fair —

Both teams score

55%

fair —

← favours BREfavours NFO →

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League position

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Form (last 5)

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Home v away record

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Attack v defence

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Shot dominance

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Rest

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Lineup strength

—

Market

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Pro result model

Opponent-adjusted projections

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Shots on target

total 9.0 · league 8.6

BRE 5.13.9 NFO

Shots

total 23.6 · league 22.0

BRE 13.210.4 NFO

Corners

total 9.5 · league 9.4

BRE 5.44.1 NFO

Fouls committed

total 22.4 · league 23.0

BRE 10.811.6 NFO

Each side's rate (season blended with last 5) × what the opponent allows ÷ league average, adjusted for venue. Corners blend that matchup rate 50/50 with each side's corners-per-shot habit × its projected shots. Fouls won by one side = fouls committed by the other.

Pro projections

Playing style · 80 league matches tracked

Style profiles

Brentford

8 games · 1.38 PPG (last 5 1.20)

23% of shots from outside the box

Aggressive pressingFoul-proneCard-heavy

Possession %

46.4#13

Shots on target

4.4#10

On target conceded

4.6#7

Shots

10.0#6

Shots outside box

3.5#19

Long shots conceded

6.2#4

Corners won

4.1#15

Corners conceded

5.1#6

Key passes

10.4#10

Tackles + interceptions

27.9#3

Fouls committed

14.0#1

Fouls won

9.4#18

Cards

2.9#1

Nottingham Forest

8 games · 0.75 PPG (last 5 0.80)

37% of shots from outside the box

High shot volumeChance creatorsFoul-proneTight defence

Possession %

46.2#15

Shots on target

3.8#16

On target conceded

3.2#18

Shots

12.0#3

Shots outside box

6.2#4

Long shots conceded

3.4#18

Corners won

4.8#9

Corners conceded

4.2#13

Key passes

12.4#2

Tackles + interceptions

25.5#10

Fouls committed

13.8#3

Fouls won

11.0#11

Cards

2.1#10

Per-game averages this season · bar = vs league average (half-way mark) · #rank of 20 (1 = most).

Predicted XIs · recent starts, minus injuries & suspensions

Lineups & player projections

Player	Pos	Fouls committed
Caoimhin Kelleher	G	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Kristoffer Ajer	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Keane Lewis-Potter	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Michael Kayode	D	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Kevin Schade	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Vitaly Janelt	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Yehor Yarmoliuk	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Dango Ouattara	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Mamadou Sangare	M	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Igor Thiago	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%
Jaidon Anthony	F	1.42 (1.3) · 2+ 41%

Pro player matchups

Projection (season average) · probability. Green = matchup pushes the player above his average, red = below.

AI scout

Angles the numbers point to

Style clash — the home side's press meets a back line that turns the ball over...

Pro AI match preview

Referee

Not yet appointed

Premier League referees are usually confirmed early in match week. Averages appear here as soon as the appointment is published.

Booking points projection

Cards & bookings

yellow 10 · red 25

Pro bookings model

Value tips for this fixture

Bookings · Booking Points

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Fouls committed

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Player prop · Player Fouls committed

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

Pro value bet

Trends triggered by this matchup

Player prop trend

Brentford

Brentford · 2+ fouls committed

vs non-top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

Team trend

Brentford

Brentford · Over 2.5 goals

vs non-top-6 sides (PL 2026/27)

Pro trend

home · Premier League 2026/27

Brentford

DLDWD

@ Hull City (10)1-1 D

vs Liverpool (4)1-2 L

@ Aston Villa (9)2-2 D

vs Chelsea (5)3-0 W

@ Bournemouth (13)2-2 D

vs Sunderland (20)1-1 D

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	1.38	1.75	1.12	62%	75%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

away · Premier League 2026/27

Nottingham Forest

DLLLW

@ Ipswich (12)1-1 D

vs Arsenal (2)0-1 L

@ Crystal Palace (17)1-3 L

vs Coventry (19)0-1 L

@ Aston Villa (9)2-1 W

vs Tottenham (14)0-0 D

Situational splits

Split	P	PPG	GF	GA	O2.5	BTTS
Season 2026/27	8	0.75	0.75	1.25	38%	50%
vs sides above	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
vs sides below	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Home	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%
Away	8	1.50	1.40	1.20	50%	50%

Opposition splits

Brentford v Nottingham Forest

How BRE and NFO match up

What decides this match

Shots, corners & fouls for this matchup

Style profiles

Lineups & player projections

Angles the numbers point to

Not yet appointed

Cards & bookings

Value tips for this fixture

Trends triggered by this matchup

Brentford · 2+ fouls committed

Brentford · Over 2.5 goals

Brentford

Nottingham Forest

Head to head